by Abdugani Karimov, PhD Candidate at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy Uzbek-Japanese relations at the present stage are among the most stable and rapidly developing relations of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Japan was one of the first developed countries to recognize Uzbekistan's independence: diplomatic relations between the two countries were established on January 26, 1992. Since then, bilateral dialogue has continuously developed elements of economic, political, and social interaction, leading to long-term relations. A significant stage in the development of high-level dialogue was Japan's initiation in 2004 of the multilateral format “Central Asia + Japan,” which became the first sustainable mechanism for regular interaction between the countries of Central Asia and Japan. This format allowed Tokyo to simultaneously strengthen ties with the states of the region, and the countries of Central Asia to promote their vision of stability, modernization, and cooperative security in the region. A significant impetus to the development of Uzbek-Japanese relations was given after 2016, against the backdrop of Shavkat Mirziyoyev's rise to power and the proclamation of a course towards revitalising foreign policy, economic liberalisation and attracting foreign investment. During this period, bilateral dialogue began to gradually transform from a model of predominantly “development assistance” to a partnership format focused on joint modernization, technological progress, and long-term investment. High-level visits played a special role in strengthening political trust. These included the President of Uzbekistan's state visits to Japan in 2019 and 2022, as well as regular contacts at the level of heads of government and relevant ministries. In this context, the visit of the President of Uzbekistan to Tokyo on December 20, 2025, can be seen not as a one-off diplomatic event, but as a logical continuation of the line of deepening strategic dialogue between the two countries. Agenda of the visit The program of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan's visit to Tokyo was structured as a set of political, economic, and humanitarian events reflecting the strategic nature of bilateral relations and the parties' desire for their further development. The visit included high-level talks, meetings with representatives of key Japanese government institutions, and intensive dialogue with business, financial, and educational structures. The central event of the visit was high-level talks between the President of Uzbekistan and the Japanese government. These talks focused on the prospects for developing a strategic partnership, expanding political dialogue, and coordinating positions on current international and regional issues. Particular attention was paid to issues of sustainable development, economic modernization, and the role of Uzbekistan as a key Central Asian state for Japan. During the talks, the parties emphasized their commitment to the principle of regular high-level and senior-level contacts, as well as the need for further institutional strengthening of bilateral cooperation mechanisms. The talks also highlighted the high degree of political trust between Tashkent and Tokyo, as well as their shared approaches to key international and regional issues, including support for stability and sustainable development in Central Asia. Particular emphasis was placed on the need to institutionalize regular political consultation mechanisms, reflecting the parties' desire to move their cooperation to a more systematic format. During the meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a number of documents were signed aimed at expanding the strategic partnership in all areas. Thus, the agreements reached during the negotiations confirmed the high level of political trust between Tashkent and Tokyo and demonstrated the parties' shared approaches to key international and regional issues, including support for stability and sustainable development in Central Asia. It should be emphasized that the signing of documents during the visit was comprehensive in nature and took place both as a result of high-level negotiations and during meetings with the heads of relevant Japanese government agencies and institutions. As a result of the visit, documents were signed in a wide range of areas, in particular: First. International political cooperation. It was within this area that the Joint Statement on an Enhanced Strategic Partnership for Future Generations was signed. This is the main political and diplomatic document of the visit, which establishes a new format for bilateral relations, expanding the framework of strategic partnership to cover more areas, from the economy to humanitarian cooperation, the “green economy,” etc. This document emphasizes the regularity of contacts and systematic interaction between the countries. Second, the economic and investment sphere, which has always been central to relations between the countries. During the negotiations, issues related to the expansion of Japanese investment in the Uzbek economy were discussed, primarily in the areas of energy, transport, and infrastructure. The Japanese side expressed interest in further participation in projects to modernize production facilities, introduce high technologies, and develop logistics corridors connecting Central Asia with external markets. Although this is not a single formal agreement, the Uzbek and Japanese sides agreed on a portfolio of cooperation projects worth about $12 billion and initiatives to create a joint investment platform, a special economic zone in the Samarkand region, and other structures. Third, the energy agenda, including the development of green energy and energy efficiency. In the context of the global energy transition, Japan is seen by Uzbekistan as one of its key partners in the introduction of new technologies, the development of renewable energy sources, and the modernization of energy infrastructure. In addition, a number of documents were signed aimed at strengthening cooperation in the economy, energy, transport, and medicine. In a separate ceremony, Uzbekistan and JICA signed agreements that include the development of economic zones, support for education, agriculture, transport infrastructure, and the medical supply system. These documents strengthen the economic bloc of bilateral cooperation and provide resources for the modernization of key industries. Fourth: the humanitarian and educational bloc. During the meeting with JICA, issues related to the expansion of educational exchanges, personnel training, academic mobility, and cooperation between universities and research centers in the two countries were discussed. During the discussion, a cooperation agreement was signed with the University of Tsukuba. As part of the package, a memorandum was signed on the creation of a joint center or program with the University of Tsukuba and related intergovernmental agreements in the field of education and scientific exchanges. These documents are aimed at deepening academic cooperation and training modern competitive personnel. At a separate document exchange ceremony, the parties exchanged memoranda of cooperation between specific ministries, companies, and scientific institutions in the presence of the President and the Japanese Minister of Economy, reflecting the keen interest of the private and public-private sectors in bilateral projects. The role of Uzbekistan in Central Asia and Japan's participation in regional initiatives were discussed separately as part of the negotiation agenda. It was emphasized that bilateral Uzbek-Japanese relations are the foundation for broader regional cooperation. During the visit, the parties reaffirmed their commitment to developing the “Central Asia + Japan” format, launched in 2004 as a platform for regional dialogue, promoting development and coordinating projects in the fields of infrastructure, ecology, education, and human security. Conclusion The visit of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan to Japan was an important milestone in the development of Uzbek-Japanese relations and clearly demonstrated the transition of bilateral cooperation to a qualitatively new level. It confirmed that relations between Tashkent and Tokyo have gone beyond traditional economic and technical cooperation and have taken on the character of a comprehensive, strategically aligned partnership. Thus, it can be seen that Tokyo is confirming Uzbekistan's status as Japan's priority partner in Central Asia, as well as the desire of the parties to continue developing relations in a bilateral and multilateral format. The economic and humanitarian components of the visit enhanced its practical significance. Discussions and agreements on new areas of cooperation in investment, technology, education, and training, etc., demonstrate the parties' keen interest in developing bilateral cooperation, and the signing of documents worth more than $12 billion only confirms this fact. Overall, the results of the visit confirm that Uzbek-Japanese relations are increasingly based not on one-off initiatives, but on a long-term strategy of mutual trust and comprehensive measures. * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved into an essential economic foundation of the present global economy. The World Trade Report 2025 establishes that AI functions as a general-purpose technology which has the same transformative power as electricity and the steam engine did to reshape entire economic systems. The report achieves dual importance because it evaluates AI economic potential while warning about increased social disparities when nations pursue isolated development paths or fail to work together. The report demonstrates how AI technology will transform trade operations and create inclusive economic expansion through various mechanisms. AI technology reduces trade expenses through its ability to speed up customs operations and improve supply chain visibility and language translation services and provide digital tools for small and medium-sized enterprises to enter international markets. The joint study between the WTO and ICC revealed that 90% of businesses using AI technology achieved concrete advantages while 50% of respondents indicated AI systems improved their ability to handle trade-related risks. The research demonstrates how AI technology enables more businesses from developing nations to join international trade activities. Professionals forecast machine intelligence's ability to accelerate productivity growth globally by about 0.68 percentage points per annum, delivering a 37% increase of trade volumes around the world and a 13% development of global GDP by 2040. Of critical importance is the fact that information services – a cluster comprising cloud technologies, software products, and AI-based services – could expand trade by more than a 40% threshold, meaning digital economies and service-based growth models now possess a considerable competitive advantage. However, the report also identifies critical challenges. Artificial Intelligence may exacerbate divergence between advanced and developing economies if policy coordination is not properly coordinated. Those economies having larger incomes with better infrastructure, improved digital qualities, and better government, are set to gain by far. Conversely, low-income economies are set to be further isolated by their weak digital infrastructure and deficiency of technical know-how. Modelling by the WTO reveals high-income economies are set to achieve income gains of up to 14%, yet low-income economies may achieve a meagre 8% if they fail to invest first in digital technologies and implement inclusive policies. If low-income economies are, however, equal their counterparts in infrastructure and uptake of AI, their income growth potential becomes even larger theirs. Another crucial aspect addressed by the report pertains to the labor market and inequality. With regard to overall pay, it will rise, but it is also estimated to fall for highly and moderately qualified individuals, as their jobs are automatable more compared to less qualified individuals. It might alleviate income inequality but challenge middle-class workers, for which there is a strong need for retraining and adjustment of skills policies. The WTO report shows how a multilateral, rules-based trading system is essential for AI to help all. Such rules as the Information Technology Agreement (ITA), the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and the TRIPS Agreement are already doing their job by cutting down equipment prices, simplifying services trade, and stimulating innovation. The WTO also devised the AI Trade Policy Openness Index (AI-TPOI), which shows large cross-country differences across service barriers, trade barriers, and data regulation. Remarkably, economies of low income are observed to be more open, but it primarily indicates a deficiency of adequate regulation and infrastructure necessary for adequate integration of AI. To make AI a genuine inclusive growth driver, it should also be accompanied by complementary policies. Today, a large majority of funding, programmes, and subsidies for AI for educational purposes remain concentrated in industrialized countries, hence increasing odds of AI benefits getting stuck in those economies. It is also necessary for trade rules and institutions of AI governance to collaborate. Regional trade policy initiatives are barely even venturing into addressing AI, and they comprise largely a group of advanced economies, encompassing barely a circle of urgent source of concern. The influence of artificial intelligence could exacerbate cross-country distances or induce more social cohesion – depending on what happens at this moment of time. The report also stresses how essential transparency, policy discourse, and upgrading capacities by initiatives such as Digital Trade for Africa and Women Exporters in the Digital Economy Fund (WEIDE) are. Those examples derive how it is achievable for inclusivity if supported by comprehensive policies and enough finances. It is clearly concluded that AI has the potential to enhance global trade, raise incomes, and expand access to economic growth. It, however, awaits necessary investment for digital infrastructure, human capital development, and sound global policy framework. World Trade Organization holds a critical position to guarantee a trade policy supports universal access to AI technologies, compensates for regulatory bifurcation, and engenders a sense of shared prosperity. The coming years will be decisive: whether AI divides or unites mankind rests on our common policy decisions and collaborative actions across nations. For Uzbekistan as the nation moves toward a more diverse and innovation-based economy, the results revealed in the WTO World Trade Report 2025 have significant relevance.  As Uzbekistan is in the process of digitalization, education reform, and in the accession process to the WTO, transformational potential of artificial intelligence in the areas of trade and production put Uzbekistan in a favorable position. With investing into digital infrastructure, data management, and education in line with AI will help Uzbekistan integrate into global value chains and strengthen the export competitiveness – especially in the textile, agricultural, and services sectors. Insights of the report align with Uzbekistan's national development goals that seek regional inequality mitigation and the strengthening of human capital. Uzbekistan will not only benefit from the center for smart, sustainable, and inclusive economic growth in Central Asia, but could also enhance its competencies through active participation in the multilateral trade system, complemented by the proactive adoption of AI-based trade facilitation policies. * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The November C5+1 summit, which recently took place in Washington, is traditionally assessed by experts through the prism of security issues, transport and logistics corridors, and energy cooperation. However, in the current circumstances, food security is becoming one of the key dimensions of cooperation, in my opinion. For Uzbekistan, this issue is of strategic importance, as the country faces limited water resources and the need to increase land use efficiency. In these circumstances, drawing on US experience and technologies in the field of agricultural innovation, precision farming, and sustainable resource management is becoming an important area of cooperation within the C5+1 format.   This approach is not accidental. In recent years, all Central Asian countries have faced common challenges: climate change, drought, land degradation, growing food demand, and declining water resources. Uzbekistan, while maintaining stable economic growth and population growth, is experiencing objective pressure on its agricultural system, where traditional farming methods are no longer as effective as they once were.   An important outcome of the summit was the announcement of Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s initiative to create a Regional Partnership for Agricultural Technology Innovation, opening up opportunities for collaboration between research centers, universities, agrotechnoparks, and business structures. The potential of such a partnership for Uzbekistan can be described in several areas.   First, it is the introduction of precision farming technologies based on satellite monitoring, big data analytics, and automation of agricultural production. The US has a developed system of digital soil monitoring and was the first in the world to own commercial platforms for high-precision control of agricultural machinery. For Uzbekistan, this is an opportunity to transition from extensive to knowledge-intensive agriculture.   Second, sustainable water management methods. The United States has significant experience in controlling water circulation in arid regions similar to the climatic zones of Central Asia, including the states of California and Nevada. The transfer of drip and combined irrigation methods, water recycling and reuse technologies can be a decisive factor in increasing crop yields.   Third, the development of biotechnology and breeding. Modern varieties of sustainable crops designed for arid regions allow for stable yields while reducing water use. This is particularly important for Karakalpakstan, Bukhara, and Navoi regions.   Overall, the creation of an agrotechnological innovation partnership is important because it involves a regional approach rather than exclusively national solutions. Agriculture and water resources in Central Asia are interlinked, and the sustainability of each state is impossible without the sustainability of its neighbors.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30, 2025, in Busan marked the first in-person contact between the two leaders since 2019 and was widely regarded as an important indicator of the current state of US-China trade relations. During the meeting, the two sides reached an oral understanding aimed at temporarily stabilizing the most sensitive areas of bilateral trade. The US administration agreed to reduce the so-called “fentanyl tariff” to 10% and to postpone the introduction of new sanctions targeting Chinese companies. In return, Beijing committed to a one-year suspension of its planned export restrictions on rare earth elements as critical components for electronics, high-tech manufacturing, and defense industries. This move carries considerable weight, as The Times of Central Asia notes that China processes around 90% of the world’s rare earth metals and accounts for approximately 70% of global extraction, making it a central supplier in international value chains. Despite the positive tone of the announcement, experts have described the outcome as a tactical pause rather than a strategic shift. According to Lukas Fiala, Director of the China Foresight Project at LSE IDEAS, the meeting represents a temporary truce intended to reduce the risk of further escalation without addressing the structural roots of competition. Fiala emphasizes that the fundamental drivers of strategic rivalry as technological autonomy, industrial policy, and supply chain control remain unchanged and will continue to shape the nature of US-China relations. Analysts cited by The Times of Central Asia similarly argue that the Busan agreement does not signify a strategic rapprochement between the two powers. Rather, it reflects an attempt to reduce short-term volatility amid global market fluctuations, the downturn in the electronics sector, and rising demand for critical minerals. Many experts thus interpret the talks as a form of “recalibration”, through which both sides seek to minimize geoeconomic risks without altering their long-term strategic orientations. For Central Asia, the Trump-Xi negotiations carry particular significance. The temporary easing of tensions between Washington and Beijing may reduce external pressures that had driven the US to accelerate the diversification of critical mineral supply chains. However, the long-term logic remains unchanged: structural competition between the US and China will persist, and the diversification of supply routes, including those running through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other regional states, will remain a core strategic objective for Washington. In this sense, the Busan meeting sets the tone for the next phase of dialogue rather than redefining the strategic priorities of either side. In sum, the Busan negotiations embody a combination of tactical de-escalation and ongoing structural competition. While they have softened immediate trade frictions, they do not alter the strategic trajectories of either Washington or Beijing. For Central Asia where US-backed initiatives on critical minerals and infrastructure are advancing, this development underscores the need to maintain a multi-vector foreign policy while remaining attentive to potential adjustments in US messaging amid the short-term stabilization of the US-China dialogue. * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

Afghanistan, Iran and Türkiye have agreed to jointly construction the Herat-Mazar-i-Sharif railway. The agreement was reached on 22 October 2025 at the Regional Assembly of the International Union of Railways in Istanbul. According to sources, each party will contribute financial, technical, and human resources to the project. The $10 million technical and economic feasibility study is scheduled for completion by March 2026, with cargo trials on the new transport route to follow a year later.   The extension of railway lines along Afghanistan’s northern provinces is consistent with the current geopolitical context of intercontinental connectivity along the East-West axis, in which Afghanistan is positioned as a Eurasia’s key transit hub. This process marks another milestone in the practical implementation of the Five Nations Railway Corridor (FNRC) concept, initiated in the early 2000s. The 2,100-kilometre route has a single 1,435 mm gauge and crosses the borders of China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran, with further access to Türkiye and the European Union. The FNRC is designed to provide the shortest land connection between East Asia, the Middle East and Europe, posing serious competition to all existing transit routes from China to the EU via Central Asia. This development could have long-term consequences for Uzbekistan and its transit capabilities.   In theory, the launch of the railway from Herat to Mazar-i-Sharif will provide Tashkent additional access to Iran’s road transport and port infrastructure, bypassing Turkmenistan. However, this advantage will not have the desired effect unless the country participates in developing the Five Nations Corridor. On the contrary, it will contribute to the redistribution of potential cargo traffic along the China–Europe–China axis in favour of Iran and Tajikistan.    Tehran took an important first step in implementing the FNRC strategic initiative by launching the construction of the 225 km Khaf-Herat railway line in its territory in 2007. The final section is expected to be commissioned by next year. Once completed, the project will enable Afghanistan and Iran to transport up to 3 million tons of cargo across their shared border each year, most of which will be transit flows. In March 2025, 200 tons of Afghan food products were transported to the EU via the Khaf–Herat route. In future, the extension of the railway to Afghanistan’s north-eastern provinces, and then on to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, could see cargo flows going in the opposite direction, with final delivery to the Chinese market.   Due to a significant reduction in transit time and distance, the new route will obviously be more preferable than transport corridors passing through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to the West. These three Central Asian republics are actively involved in developing the Southern Railway Corridor to the EU via Iran and Türkiye. It is estimated that connecting the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, construction of which began in April 2025, with the Southern Corridor will shorten the trade route between East Asia and Europe by 900 km. This would give Tashkent a competitive advantage in interregional transit transportation. However, Uzbekistan risks losing this opportunity if the Five Nations Corridor continues to be intensified.   As a preventive measure, it is recommended that the prospect of creating a China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan railway corridor with the potential for extension to Afghanistan and Iran, is considered. This would mitigate the consequences of the FNRC activation for Uzbekistan and turn the country into one of the beneficiaries of the Mazar-i-Sharif-Herat railway project.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) concluded in Beijing, approving the “Recommendations on the Formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for Socio-Economic Development of the PRC (2026–2030)”. The plenary reaffirmed the national course toward high-quality growth, innovative modernization, and technological self-reliance as strategic priorities of China’s long-term development.   At a press conference on October 24, representatives of China’s State Council outlined the key objectives of the new plan: sustained economic growth, deepening reform and opening-up, cultural and ecological development, strengthening national security, and revitalization of rural areas. According to Han Wenxiu, Executive Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission (CFEAC), particular emphasis will be placed on modernizing the agricultural sector, enhancing production quality, and improving rural infrastructure.   According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Peking Ensight (October 18, 2025), China’s GDP grew by 5.3 percent in the first half of 2025, exceeding the target of “around 5 percent.” Growth in exports (+6.9%), retail sales (+4.6%), and industrial production (+6.2%) reflects the effectiveness of stimulus measures and the expansion of domestic demand.   Experts from the Center for China Analysis, Asia Society note that Beijing is “doubling down on innovation” to reduce external dependence and boost productivity. The focus is on developing “new quality productive forces” driven by original technologies, digitalization, and artificial intelligence. Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun outlined four priorities: advancing fundamental research, achieving breakthroughs in critical technologies, integrating science and industry, and cultivating scientific talent. Analysts at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) similarly emphasize that China is “doubling down on innovation and high-tech industries,” continuing its pursuit of scientific and technological self-strengthening.   Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Zheng Shanjie reaffirmed the goal of building a modern industrial system that combines the modernization of traditional sectors with the growth of emerging industries, services, and infrastructure.   According to the NDRC, government funds amounting to 500 billion yuan are expected to mobilize up to 5 trillion yuan in total investment, including 600 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025. Experts note that this approach opens new opportunities for foreign partners, including Central Asian countries, to engage in projects related to industrial, energy, and transport modernization.   For China’s external partners — particularly Central Asia — this strategic orientation has tangible implications. It creates new opportunities for industrial cooperation, digitalization, green investment, and agricultural partnerships.   The development of high-tech and agricultural clusters in China could foster technology and knowledge exchange in areas such as agrotechnology, water efficiency, and agricultural processing.China’s focus on domestic consumption and high-quality imports also generates additional demand for agricultural and textile exports from Central Asia, including Uzbekistan, while the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to offer new possibilities for transit and infrastructure projects.   A significant part of the plenary’s agenda focused on intraparty discipline and personnel reshuffles. The CPC reaffirmed its commitment to a policy of “strict internal control” and an ongoing anti-corruption campaign.  General Zhang Shengmin was appointed to the Central Military Commission (CMC), while several high-ranking military and civilian officials — including General He Weidong and former Minister of Agriculture Tang Renjian — were expelled from the Party.   According to the Center for China Analysis, Asia Society, such measures reflect not weakness but rather the consolidation of Xi Jinping’s authority, aimed at strengthening party discipline and governance efficiency. As Reuters reports, these dismissals form part of the largest military purge in recent years, intended to restore discipline and command accountability. Analysts at the Beyond the Horizon International Strategic Studies Group (BtH/ISSG) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) argue that the current anti-corruption campaign within the defense sector has a systemic managerial nature, designed to reinforce the command hierarchy and institutional effectiveness of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).   In the economic and external policy domains, the plenary reaffirmed China’s commitment to openness and multilateral trade. Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao announced expanded access to the services market, the removal of restrictions in several sectors, and new incentives for foreign investment.   According to Xinhua News Agency, beginning December 18, 2025, the island of Hainan will implement new customs regulations introducing zero tariffs for 74 percent of tariff lines — a step toward establishing a fully functional free-trade port and promoting cross-border commerce.   An article in the People’s Daily under the pseudonym Zhong Caiwen (the official signature of the CFEAC Secretariat) emphasized that “China’s new development philosophy has global significance: it not only suits China but also provides reliable solutions to global challenges.” China positions itself as a defender of the multilateral trading system and seeks to “bring certainty to the global economy,” contributing to a more stable environment for shared growth.   The outcomes of the 4th Plenary Session reaffirmed Beijing’s steady commitment to domestic modernization, technological self-strengthening, and open integration into the global economy. For Central Asia, this translates into expanded opportunities to cooperate with one of the world’s leading innovation hubs and to participate in emerging industrial, digital, and green initiatives that can shape a pragmatic and mutually beneficial framework for regional development.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.