In his article Rustam Makhmudov emphasises that the modern discourse on green transition requires a deeper and non-linear understanding. The author, relying on the definitions of the European Commission, notes that the green transition involves not just technological innovation, but also fundamental changes in the very model of economic and social development. However, as Makhmudov expertly notes, current approaches often remain in the captivity of linear logic – as if we are talking about a straightforward transition from one system to another, without taking into account hidden contradictions and structural limitations.
The article pays special attention to the phenomenon of “growthism” – the ideology of quantitative increase in production, which has its roots in the era of industrial revolutions. Makhmudov argues that even proponents of the circular economy – a key element of the green transition – often remain hostage to productivist attitudes. He critically analyses the circular model, pointing out its contradiction: in reality, maintaining endless technological innovation and mass consumption leads to the increasing extraction of new resources, such as lithium and rare earth metals, which calls into question the true sustainability of the stated goals.
The author details the relationship between the ideology of mass consumption, the mechanisms of creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter, and the logic of modern technological progress. Makhmudov emphasises that without constant stimulation of demand and accelerated obsolescence of goods, the dynamics of the capitalist economy is impossible, which means that the green transition will not escape these patterns. In this context, he is sceptical about the possibility of building a truly closed circular economy, as resource recycling has physical, thermodynamic and economic limits.
Finally, the expert notes that green technologies, despite reducing emissions at the operational stage, are accompanied by significant environmental costs at the extraction and production stages. Makhmudov provides convincing evidence of the high level of pollution in lithium and rare earth mining and the high carbon footprint of electric vehicle production. He concludes his analysis with the need for further fundamental research that can not only diagnose the weaknesses of the current green transition model, but also suggest more realistic ways to improve it.
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