From Closed Borders to Open Gates: Central Asia as a New Destination for Russian Migration after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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16 July, 2025

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From Closed Borders to Open Gates: Central Asia as a New Destination for Russian Migration after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The recent article coauthored by Prof. Timur Dadabaev and his colleagues for Central Asian Affairs (Brill, 2025) offers a fresh and critical examination of an emerging migratory trend that upends longstanding regional patterns. The authors analyze the unexpected yet significant influx of Russian migrants into Central Asia following the military conflict Ukraine, positing that this movement represents a reversal of the traditional post-Soviet migratory flow, which for decades had seen Central Asians moving northward to Russia in search of economic opportunities.

 

Drawing on empirical data and theoretical insights, the authors argue that existing migration theories fall short of explaining this complex phenomenon. Central Asia, they assert, is no longer merely a space of departure or transit, but is transforming into a viable destination in its own right. This shift is underpinned not only by the region’s relative economic accessibility but also by its political neutrality — a factor that has become increasingly attractive to Russian citizens seeking to leave their country due to disillusionment with the war, political repression, and deteriorating economic conditions.

 

One of the article’s key conceptual contributions is its engagement with the notion of “exit as voice”. The authors suggest that for many Russians, particularly the educated urban middle class, migration to Central Asia serves as a form of political expression — a way to withdraw from and silently protest against the direction of the Russian state. In this sense, mobility becomes a medium of dissent, a phenomenon not adequately captured by traditional economic or conflict-driven migration models.

 

Furthermore, the article underscores the evolution of migration infrastructure within Central Asian states. Governments and institutions in the region are increasingly adapting to accommodate incoming populations, reshaping not only labor markets but also education, housing, and social services. This infrastructural transformation signals a broader regional recalibration in response to shifting geopolitical and demographic realities. As the authors persuasively argue, understanding these new dynamics is crucial for rethinking regional integration, mobility regimes, and the future of post-Soviet space.

 

Access the article: https://doi.org/10.30965/22142290-bja10066

 

* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.