In his detailed policy brief for The Diplomat, Dr. Islomkhon Gafarov analyses the subtle yet strategic evolution of Russia’s policy toward Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Rather than treating Afghanistan as a traditional conflict zone, Moscow increasingly views it as part of the broader Central Asian region — both economically and politically. Central to this approach is the introduction of Afghan labor migration into Russia, a policy tool long used by Moscow to build influence in post-Soviet Central Asia. The recent agreement signed during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to increase Afghan migration to Russia signals not only pragmatic cooperation but also a deeper attempt to stabilize ties with the Taliban government.
Dr. Gafarov argues that this new migration vector is part of a larger Russian strategy to reshape Afghanistan’s view of Russia — not as a former occupier, but as a partner and economic opportunity. While China continues to dominate headlines with its resource extraction and Belt and Road investments in Afghanistan, Moscow is quietly creating alternative linkages — through employment, humanitarian aid, and infrastructure development. Notably, Russia has even surpassed China in some respects, such as recognizing the Taliban diplomatically and offering direct employment routes to Afghan workers.
The brief also delves into the geopolitical competition emerging in Afghanistan between Russia and China. With Beijing expanding its grip on Afghan resources and logistics, Russia is pushing back through digital infrastructure projects and the launch of the Trans-Afghan railway in cooperation with Uzbekistan. A recent annulment of a major Chinese oil deal by the Afghan government may offer Moscow an opening to enhance its presence in the energy sector. This competition is nuanced, as both powers maintain informal boundaries in Central Asia but appear to be increasingly contesting influence in Afghanistan.
At the same time, Russia’s outreach to Afghanistan is shaped by the lingering trauma of the Soviet-Afghan war. Dr. Gafarov notes how Moscow is seeking to overwrite these historical memories with soft power initiatives — from flour shipments to cultural programs — while simultaneously addressing contemporary security threats. Russia views economic engagement not only as a lever of influence but also as a counter-radicalization measure, attempting to stem the growth of terrorist groups like ISKP through stability and development.
Ultimately, the policy brief paints a picture of Russia slowly integrating Afghanistan into its wider Central Asian policy framework. By opening labor pathways and positioning itself as a dependable partner amid regional deportations and Western disengagement, Moscow is crafting a new narrative. As Dr. Gafarov concludes, this could mark the beginning of a lasting Russian presence in Afghanistan’s economic and political fabric — an evolution not through military intervention, but through migration, market access, and diplomacy.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
