A new analytical paper by the Centre for American Studies examines the growing competition between the foreign policy vectors of the United States, Russia and Iran over the fate of the Zangezur Corridor, a key link in the Middle Transport Route designed to connect China with Europe via the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The authors emphasise that the Zangezur Corridor is not just an infrastructure project, but an instrument of geo-economic redistribution of influence in the region, exacerbating issues of sovereignty, security and long-term regional architecture.
The report pays particular attention to the US proposal to lease the route through southern Armenia for 100 years, with operational control transferred to a private company acting as a neutral guarantor. This initiative aims to provide Azerbaijan with stable transit to Nakhchivan and further to Turkey, while allowing Armenia to retain its formal sovereignty. The study emphasises that such a solution could change the balance of power in the region, weakening the leverage of Russia and Iran, while providing Central Asian countries — especially Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — with direct access to European markets, bypassing Russian and Iranian routes.
At the same time, the authors soberly assess the numerous obstacles. In Armenia, the lease of the corridor is perceived as a threat to losing control over the strategic Syunik region. Domestic political instability, pressure from the opposition, and historical distrust of major powers create a significant risk of negotiations breaking down. Russia and Iran, in turn, view the implementation of the project as undermining their geo-economic interests: Moscow may restrict energy supplies to Armenia and tighten control over alternative routes, while Tehran is already openly demonstrating military activity near the Azerbaijani border and stepping up its rhetoric regarding regional isolation.
The paper concludes that the Zangezur corridor is becoming a point of intersection for the strategies of three competing powers, and its implementation will require not only diplomatic flexibility but also the creation of trust-building mechanisms for regional security. According to the authors, the success of the project could set a precedent for resolving long-term conflicts through institutionalised forms of economic cooperation. However, if it fails, the corridor risks becoming yet another frozen line of tension in the complex system of South Caucasus contradictions.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
