In his latest policy brief, Dr Islomkhon Gafarov provides a detailed assessment of how the Taliban are recalibrating Afghanistan’s mineral wealth as a strategic diplomatic instrument. Faced with the collapse of international aid, asset freezes, and the dismantling of the opium economy, the Taliban leadership has turned its attention to the country’s vast untapped reserves of copper, lithium, iron ore, and uranium. Yet, rather than launching immediate large-scale exploitation, Dr Gafarov argues, the Taliban have adopted a cautious approach — employing natural resources as a form of political capital in their efforts to achieve international recognition.
Afghanistan’s subsoil potential is immense: over 1,400 deposits are identified across the country, with copper at Mes Aynak valued at over $50 billion, and lithium reserves seen as critical to the global green energy transition. While the sector has already attracted approximately $7 billion in foreign investment and officially employs 150,000 people, the Taliban appear to be treating these resources not primarily as economic assets, but as geopolitical leverage. The brief underlines how the regime is linking bilateral extraction agreements with broader negotiations over legal frameworks, with the implicit understanding that access to Afghanistan’s critical minerals could pave the way for limited international engagement or even recognition.
Dr Gafarov outlines the role of key external actors — most prominently China, whose state companies have secured long-term contracts in oil and copper, and which is now negotiating for lithium concessions. China’s interest is both economic and strategic, tied to the Belt and Road Initiative and to securing technological supply chains. India, facing rising tensions with Pakistan and aiming to scale its nuclear sector, is eyeing Afghan uranium. Russia, Iran, and Pakistan, while active, are approaching resource cooperation through broader strategic lenses, including transit infrastructure and regional power dynamics. Uzbekistan, for its part, is well positioned to assist through mineral processing facilities, cross-border logistics, and technical capacity-building.
The policy brief concludes that Afghanistan’s extractive sector, though underdeveloped, has become a central pillar of the Taliban’s shadow diplomacy. By avoiding exclusive partnerships and maintaining a multi-vector engagement strategy, the Taliban are using natural resources to generate interest without making full concessions. According to Dr Gafarov, this strategy reflects an attempt to move beyond financial survival and toward the careful construction of political legitimacy through resource diplomacy — seeking not merely contracts, but recognition.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
