Meloni’s visit to Washington on April 17, despite the wariness of some European capitals and concerns about the erosion of EU unity, received formal support from the European Commission as a possible step toward de-escalating tensions in U.S.-EU trade relations. At the White House, Meloni delivered an ideological manifesto in favor of “restoring the greatness of the West”, emphasizing the fight against “woke ideology” as a unifying platform between Europe and the United States. She stressed that she was not talking about geography, but about a “civilizational alliance” that must be strengthened.
Despite the encouraging backdrop, her mission was complicated by several factors at once, from Rome’s limited foreign policy mandate to the growing distrust at home and among EU partners of Rome’s independent actions on the international stage. Warnings from Paris about the risk of undermining pan-European consolidation in the face of growing external pressure were particularly critical.
The Italian prime minister faced a triple challenge: to defend Italy’s economic interests, to soften the US confrontational course towards the EU and to preserve the unity of the transatlantic space. At the same time, she had to maneuver between loyalty to Trump, who sees her as a potential strategic ally, and the need to consider the interests and sensitivities of European partners who criticize Rome’s unilateral actions.
Notably, Meloni was the only EU leader invited to Trump’s inauguration, and her meeting with Vice President J.D. Vance in Rome on April 18 serves as an indicator of the U.S. establishment’s special attention to Italy. The content of her talks with Vance included discussions on the prospects for a bilateral trade deal and the search for an early resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reflecting the new administration’s priorities for Southern Europe: an emphasis on pragmatic economic cooperation and a desire to reevaluate American involvement in European conflicts through the lens of U.S. national interests.
Vance, on his last visit to Europe in January, criticized the bloc, accusing its leaders of failing to uphold free speech or stop illegal migration. Now arriving at the Vatican on the eve of Easter, he also held talks with the Holy See’s secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin. According to some observers, this could mean the strengthening of the “conservative axis” within the new transatlantic political alliance.
Given the $126 billion in bilateral trade and the U.S. share in Italian exports (about 10% of the total), Italy remains one of the most dependent on the U.S. market in the EU. The projected decline in GDP by 0.4-0.6% in the next two years is accompanied by the risk of losing over 50,000 jobs. Pessimism is also increasing on the financial markets: the Italian stock index showed the worst dynamics among the developed Western economies immediately after April 2. This makes the situation particularly tense: interdependence, often referred to as the basis of an “unshakeable alliance”, is turning into leverage – both for Trump and for Meloni herself.
With a public debt exceeding 136% of GDP, low growth rates and high dependence on European funding for the Recovery Plan that will end by 2026, Italy lacks sufficient economic autonomy to influence the parameters of transatlantic trade alone. An aging population, growing social spending commitments, and limited fiscal space further narrow the room for maneuver.
Meloni herself, a former representative of the far-right wing of Italian politics with roots in the neo-fascist movement, has managed to transform herself into a leader seeking international legitimacy and pragmatism without losing touch with radical right-wing rhetoric. This approach, dubbed “pragmatic radicalism” in expert circles, allows her to combine a nationalist agenda at the domestic level with a moderate foreign policy line emphasizing transatlanticism and military support for Ukraine.
Under these circumstances, Meloni is not so much imposing a “European line” on the United States as trying to convince Trump that a unified Europe can be a strategic asset for the United States rather than a threat. The concept of “zero tariffs” on manufactured goods could be not only a symbol of renewed cooperation, but also a pragmatic basis for restarting a negotiating architecture that would show the effectiveness of dialoguing with a single bloc rather than a multitude of national governments.
Although Meloni is not formally authorized to negotiate on behalf of the union, some European capitals view her mission as a tactical reconnaissance that could outline a framework for future dialogue. As Alberto Rizzi, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, notes, Meloni could play the role of a “scout”, laying the groundwork for subsequent formal negotiations.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
