In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Abbos Bobokhonov describes Chinese direct investment in Central Asia as a rapidly growing trend, but one that is uneven in terms of quality and impact. Against the backdrop of a nearly twofold increase in China’s accumulated FDI in the region since 2016 and a concentration of investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, the expert emphasizes that the dynamics are not “self-serving”: it reflects structural changes in the economic policies of the countries in the region and Beijing’s long-term foreign economic priorities.
The expert links the growth of Chinese capital, first, to the logic of the Belt and Road Initiative, under which China invests primarily in sectors that directly serve its interests – infrastructure, energy, and industry. Second, he points to political and economic changes in the region: leadership changes in a number of countries have been accompanied by more liberal approaches to the economy and investment policy, which has increased the predictability and attractiveness of markets for Chinese investors. In his view, it is the combination of liberalisation and growing mutual trust that has widened the “window of opportunity” for scaling up projects.
Speaking about risks, Dr. Bobokhonov makes an important distinction: the risk lies not in the investments themselves, but in poor project design and implementation control, including elements of corruption, which can lead to project failure and debt vulnerabilities. He also touches on a sensitive social aspect – the growth of critical sentiment and competition in local markets, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in the number of companies with Chinese capital.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
