The article published in the journal Economic Diplomacy examines the evolution of foreign policy strategies among the five Central Asian states in the context of shifting global power dynamics. The authors argue that the traditional Multi-Vector Foreign Policy (MVFP) framework, which centers on balancing relations with Russia, China, and the West, is no longer sufficient to explain Central Asia’s contemporary foreign engagements. In light of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, war in Ukraine, and China’s deepening economic footprint through the Belt and Road Initiative, the region has begun seeking new partnerships. The paper introduces the concept of a “fourth vector”, composed of emerging regional powers such as Türkiye, Iran, Azerbaijan, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, India, and Pakistan. These states, the authors contend, are becoming significant players in Central Asia by offering economic cooperation, particularly in energy and transport, without imposing great power politics.
The article provides a detailed comparative analysis of the four foreign policy vectors. The Western vector, although diminished in influence, remains symbolically relevant. Russia retains deep security, cultural, and migration links with the region, while China has solidified its position as the leading economic force, primarily through infrastructure investment and trade. The newly emerging fourth vector is described as a “marriage of convenience” for Central Asian states seeking to diversify their external ties without antagonizing the dominant great powers. Through forums like the Organization of Turkic States and bilateral deals in renewable energy and logistics, these emerging actors are being integrated into the region’s strategic calculus.
Crucially, the authors suggest that this fourth vector might serve Western interests indirectly by helping Central Asian states resist overreliance on Russia or China. They raise the possibility — cautiously and based on insider interviews — that the U.S. could be quietly facilitating these partnerships to circumvent the geopolitical sensitivities that hinder direct American engagement. The article concludes by calling for further research on the sustainability and geopolitical consequences of these new alignments, especially in a world moving towards multipolarity. It is a timely and nuanced contribution to debates on Central Asia’s evolving place in global affairs.
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