This article by Mr. Dilshod Olimov provides a comprehensive policy-oriented analysis of the evolving energy geopolitics of Central Asia in the period from 2016 to 2030, with a particular focus on the strategic role of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The study argues that the traditional model of regional energy competition, historically based on the control of resources and transit routes, is gradually being replaced by a new paradigm centred on energy system resilience, infrastructure reliability, and institutional capacity. In this context, factors such as grid sovereignty, seasonal balancing capacity, investment mobilisation, and energy diplomacy increasingly determine the geopolitical position of states in the region.
The paper examines how Uzbekistan has emerged as a pivotal actor within this transformation due to its large domestic energy market, central geographical location within regional power networks, and the comprehensive energy sector reforms initiated since 2016. Particular attention is given to the institutional and economic reforms implemented under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, which have significantly reshaped the country’s electricity and natural gas sectors, expanded renewable energy capacity, and improved the investment climate. These reforms have contributed to strengthening Uzbekistan’s energy security while simultaneously broadening its diplomatic and economic maneuvering space.
The article also evaluates the structure of energy balances across Central Asian states and demonstrates how asymmetries between hydro-based and hydrocarbon-based energy systems create both vulnerabilities and opportunities for regional cooperation. In this regard, the development of cross-border electricity trade, modernization of power grids, and the creation of a regional electricity market such as the REMIT initiative supported by the World Bank, are examined as key mechanisms for transforming regional interdependence into a source of stability and mutual benefit.
Finally, the study explores the broader geopolitical environment surrounding Central Asia’s energy transition, including the growing involvement of external actors such as China, the European Union, and the United States. The article concludes that Uzbekistan’s strategy of diversifying energy sources, expanding renewable generation, strengthening grid resilience, and promoting regional electricity market integration positions the country as a central “node of resilience” in the emerging energy architecture of Central Asia.
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