As Dr. Gafarov notes, Russia’s formal recognition of the Taliban government on 3 July 2025 marks a significant turning point in the international community’s approach to Afghanistan. Unlike the Taliban’s first period in power (1996–2001), the current regime has steadily cultivated diplomatic legitimacy over the past four years. Recognition by a major non-Islamic power such as Russia underscores the Taliban’s evolution into a more pragmatic and diplomatically active political actor. The move also reframes the Afghan question — from a largely security-driven regional concern to a component of broader geopolitical competition between East and West.
Russia’s decision follows a series of incremental steps, including the removal of the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations and preparations for the Taliban’s full participation in the upcoming Moscow Format talks. The Kremlin’s approach is driven by strategic considerations: securing its influence in Central Asia, accessing new export markets, and countering Western isolation through partnerships in the Global South. In particular, the prospect of military cooperation, arms trade, and connectivity initiatives such as the Trans-Afghan Railway indicate that Moscow views Afghanistan as a valuable partner in its evolving foreign policy matrix.
The implications of this recognition are likely to reverberate across the region. Some neighboring states may feel encouraged to reassess their own positions. Uzbekistan, while maintaining an independent foreign policy, has shown willingness to engage the Taliban in dialogue, as evidenced by President Mirziyoyev’s recent meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Baradar. However, a formal recognition from Tashkent remains contingent on its own national priorities. Iran, despite being geographically and politically proximate, is unlikely to follow Moscow’s lead due to deteriorating bilateral ties with Kabul. Pakistan’s stance, though historically more sympathetic to the Taliban, has been complicated by domestic security concerns and refugee tensions. All eyes now turn to the upcoming SCO Summit in Tianjin.
Looking ahead, Russia’s initiative may create momentum for broader recognition, especially if China or key regional actors such as Kazakhstan move in a similar direction. The upcoming SCO Summit in Tianjin may provide an opportunity for collective deliberation on Afghanistan’s place in the regional order. Whether Russia’s move triggers a true domino effect remains uncertain, but it undeniably signals a shift in the diplomatic status quo. Afghanistan, long treated as a marginal or exceptional case, is increasingly becoming integrated into mainstream geopolitical calculations.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
