The issue of Bulgaria’s accession to the eurozone is not merely about meeting macroeconomic indicators or following institutional procedures. It represents a much deeper process – an effort to build trust, resilience, and a strategic identity within the European Union. Since joining the EU in 2007, Bulgaria has often been seen as a peripheral member of the integration project, a perception shaped by prolonged political instability, weak institutions, and susceptibility to external pressures. Yet in 2025, the country appears to have made a determined attempt to challenge this narrative – viewing the adoption of the euro not just as a technical step, but as a political and economic transformation with the potential to redirect its national development path.
On paper, Bulgaria has reason to be optimistic. Public debt stands at around 24% of GDP, the projected budget deficit for 2025 remains within the permissible 3%, and inflation is stabilizing at 2.8% – well aligned with the targets set by the European Central Bank. The lev has long been pegged to the euro, first through a currency board and, since 2020, within the framework of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). This has ensured exchange rate stability and helped prepare the country for a smoother transition. The Bulgarian Central Bank and government have been working steadily to strengthen fiscal discipline-cutting inefficient spending, tackling the informal economy, and improving tax administration.
However, the challenge lies not only in economic figures. Internal convergence is still far from complete. Issues such as low labor productivity and insufficient digital skills remain major obstacles. For instance, only about one-third of the population possesses basic digital competencies – well below the EU average. This points to a broader issue: without substantial educational and institutional reforms, the country may struggle to adapt to the financial and economic environment that comes with eurozone membership.
Another complicating factor is political instability. The new coalition government, led by Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, has declared euro integration a top priority. However, the coalition includes parties with radically divergent views, including openly pro-Russian forces. In May 2025, President Rumen Radev proposed a referendum on euro adoption, signaling that even at the highest political level, unity is fragile. Parliament ultimately rejected the initiative, citing Bulgaria’s obligations as an EU member state.
The potential benefits of adopting the euro are considerable – reduced transaction costs, the elimination of exchange rate risks, and access to the deeper financial markets of the eurozone. Over the long term, it could boost investor confidence and make it easier to attract capital into the Bulgarian economy. Domestically, increased competition could help lower prices and build consumer trust. Yet the risks should not be underestimated. A temporary spike in prices is a common side-effect of euro adoption, particularly if retailers engage in price rounding.
Public perception is another critical aspect. According to recent polls, around 70% of Bulgarians either oppose immediate euro adoption or wish to postpone it. Many fear rising prices, loss of economic sovereignty, and increased external influence. These concerns are amplified by disinformation, especially from pro-Russian parties like “Revival”, which actively circulate myths on social media about “confiscation of savings” and other alarmist scenarios. In response, the government has launched consultation processes, opened information centers, and initiated awareness campaigns, but these efforts remain insufficient.
Cultural dimensions must also be considered. For many Bulgarians, the lev is more than just a currency – it is a symbol of national independence. Abandoning it can feel like surrendering economic control to Brussels and the ECB. However, the experiences of other countries, such as the Baltic states and Croatia, suggest that with a well-planned communication strategy, the transition can be relatively smooth. In Croatia, which joined the eurozone in January 2023, inflation rose only moderately, while foreign investment increased.
Bulgaria’s experience is also of relevance to Uzbekistan. Firstly, as Bulgaria becomes a more predictable partner in terms of institutions, macroeconomic governance, and regulatory transparency, it opens promising avenues for deeper cooperation, especially in pharmaceuticals, agri-processing, IT, and light industry. Secondly, Bulgaria could serve as a gateway for Uzbekistan to access the eurozone market through joint ventures, trade offices, and integration into European logistics chains. And thirdly, Bulgaria’s evolving relationship with the ECB offers valuable lessons for Uzbekistan, should it choose to engage more deeply with global financial institutions in the future.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
